RIX Trading Setup #003 · Trading Setups Desk · ETH
Title Ethereum Trading Setup #001: Bearish August Plan
The Read
BearishThis setup is based on both of my higher-timeframe market structure reports: Bitcoin Market Structure: https://intel.rixportal.com/p/bitcoin-market-structure-bearish-august-outlook. Ethereum Market Structure: https://intel.rixportal.com/p/ethereum-market-structure-bearish-august-outlook. This trading setup is simply the execution plan derived from those higher-timeframe views.
Invalidation
A strong move towards the $2,200 area followed by sustained acceptance above that level would invalidate this bearish trade setup and suggest the higher-timeframe market structure has changed.
The plan, recorded at publication
| Bias | |
|---|---|
| Entry zone | Open 40% of the position at the current market price, which is $1,950. Place a limit short order at $2,100 using the remaining 60% allocation. |
| Leverage | 5x |
| Invalidation | A strong move towards the $2,200 area followed by sustained acceptance above that level would invalidate this bearish trade setup and suggest the higher-timeframe market structure has changed. |
| Target 1 | $1,750 |
| Target 2 | $1,660 |
| Horizon | weeks |
| Conviction | High |
Interpretation
This trade is the execution plan derived from my published Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Structure reports. Rather than chasing price, I am scaling into resistance. I will open 40% of the position at the current market price and place a limit short order around $2,100 using the remaining 60%. The objective is to enter where risk-to-reward is most favourable while following the broader bearish market structure.
Evidence
Trading Setup
ETH short plan
Screenshot
Key observations
- Ethereum continues to follow Bitcoin's higher-timeframe direction.
- Price is approaching a major supply zone.
- Seasonality continues to favour downside over the coming weeks.
- Fundamental and technical factors remain aligned.
- Risk-to-reward improves significantly near the supply area.
The counter-case
The strongest argument against this read
If buyers reclaim the $2,200 region and establish sustained acceptance above that level, the bearish thesis weakens and the market structure would need to be reassessed.
The alternative interpretation
The recent recovery could develop into a broader trend reversal if resistance is successfully reclaimed. Until that confirmation appears, I continue to treat this move as a relief rally within the existing higher-timeframe bearish structure.
The invalidation scenario
A strong upward move towards the $2,200 resistance zone followed by expanding bullish momentum would invalidate this trade setup.
Resolution