RIX Trading Setup #002 · Trading Setups Desk · BTC
Bitcoin Trading Setup #001: Bearish August Plan
The Read
BearishThis trading setup follows my Bitcoin Market Structure. Read the full thesis first: https://intel.rixportal.com/p/bitcoin-market-structure-bearish-august-outlook. This setup is simply the execution plan based on that higher-timeframe view.
Invalidation
A strong daily close above $70,000 followed by continued acceptance above that level would weaken this setup and invalidate the current bearish trade idea.
The plan, recorded at publication
| Bias | |
|---|---|
| Entry zone | Open 40% of the position at current market price, which is $65,000 and set a limit short order around $69,000 with the remaining 60%. |
| Leverage | 5x |
| Invalidation | A strong daily close above $70,000 followed by continued acceptance above that level would weaken this setup and invalidate the current bearish trade idea. |
| Target 1 | $61,000 |
| Target 2 | $60,000 |
| Horizon | weeks |
| Conviction | High |
Interpretation
This trade is based on my Bitcoin Market Structure rather than a standalone signal. I'm looking for price to move into the resistance area around $69,000 before increasing my short exposure. My current plan is to establish an initial position around current levels and add only if price reaches the resistance zone. The goal is to improve my average entry instead of committing the full position immediately.
Evidence
Trading Setup
BTC short plan
Screenshot
Key observations
- Trade follows the higher-timeframe bearish thesis.
- Price is approaching a major resistance zone.
- A large FVG gap remains near $69,000.
- Risk improves closer to resistance.
- Targets remain unchanged.
The counter-case
The strongest argument against this read
If Bitcoin breaks above $70,000 with strong spot participation and continues to hold above that level, the bearish setup loses strength and I would reassess the trade.
The alternative interpretation
The current consolidation could become continuation rather than distribution if buyers successfully reclaim $70,000 with strong demand.
The invalidation scenario
Strong daily acceptance above $70,000 with continued buying pressure.
Resolution