Journal · RIX Market Journal
Market Structure
Liquidity, positioning, derivatives, the shape of the tape.
The record
July 2026
Ethereum Market Structure: Bearish August Outlook
This publication builds upon my Bitcoin August Market Structure. Read it first for the higher-timeframe thesis: https://intel.rixportal.com/p/bitcoin-market-structure-bearish-august-outlook. Ethereum generally follows Bitcoin's broader market direction, so this publication focuses on how Ethereum's current structure aligns with that higher-timeframe view. Ethereum continues to recover alongside Bitcoin but I don't view the current move as structurally strong. Rising price is being driven primarily by derivatives activity rather than meaningful spot demand. As long as my Bitcoin bearish August outlook remains valid, I remain cautious on Ethereum and expect any upside to stay fragile until stronger spot buying confirms the move.
Bitcoin Market Structure: Bearish August Outlook
Bitcoin has rallied throughout July but several higher-timeframe indicators suggest the move is becoming increasingly fragile. Derivatives participation continues to outpace spot demand, Coinbase Premium remains negative, leverage has expanded and multiple macro and technical factors point toward elevated downside risk. While Bitcoin could still revisit the 69–70k resistance region before reversing, my current market structure remains bearish for August and potentially into September unless new evidence changes this view.